Mild outlook into November, with possible polar-vortex change ahead

Russell Township falls within a broad area of Canada where relatively mild weather is expected to continue into early November, according to atmospheric scientist Judah Cohen’s latest outlook.

Cohen is director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. His regular outlook examines weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, breaking down the forecast region by region.

In his Oct. 26 update, he forecasts normal-to-above-normal temperatures across much of Canada through Nov. 10. Eastern Ontario is within that broad mild pattern.

Far above the Arctic, however, Cohen expects an unusually early and substantial disruption of the polar vortex, the circulation of winds surrounding the polar region.

Such disruptions can change atmospheric circulation and increase the likelihood of cold air reaching farther south. Cohen says the developing pattern could influence Northern Hemisphere weather in late November and December.

Whether that brings colder conditions to our region will depend on how the pattern develops. A disruption does not guarantee cold weather everywhere, and its effects can take weeks to reach the surface.

For now, the outlook points to relatively mild conditions into November, with a possible change later in the month.

Source: Cohen’s Oct. 26 outlook.